PlagueIncModel

Ideas

We are trying to establish a model which could be used to predict the numbers of deaths and infective of the noovel Coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China. The model is based on kinetics and we've made some basic hypothesis. Now that the virus is spreading all over the world. There's more data to train, optimize and validate the efficiency and accuracy of the model.

Categories of individuals

Susceptable, S

The healthy, uninfected crowd which have a probability of becoming the infective.

Exposed, E

Infective(Segregated), I0

Infective(Unsegregated), I1

Dead, D

Recovered, R

Equations

Kinetics

Coronavirus Data in Mainland China

Data Source Announcement

The data shown below are all captured from the website of National Health Commission of PRC(中国国家卫生健康委员会 http://www.nhc.gov.cn/) and Local Health Commission in China(Wuhan, e.g.). All figures are based on fact, if you have any question, please check the website above. Data is entered by hand, so there could be mistakes and please do correct us if so.

Date	Day	Skeptical	Comfirmed	Dead	Cured	DeathRatio	CureRatio	dD/dt	dR/dt
2020/1/5	5	0	59	0	0	0.0%	0.0%
2020/1/11	7	0	41	1	4	2.4%	9.8%	0.5	2.0
2020/1/15	15	0	41	2	12	4.9%	29.3%	0.1	1.0
2020/1/16	16	0	45	2	15	4.4%	33.3%	0.0	3.0
2020/1/17	17	0	62	2	19	3.2%	30.6%	0.0	4.0
2020/1/18	18	0	121	3	24	2.5%	19.8%	1.0	5.0
2020/1/19	19	0	198	3	25	1.5%	12.6%	0.0	1.0
2020/1/20	20	54	291	6	25	2.1%	8.6%	3.0	0.0
2020/1/21	21	37	440	9	28	2.0%	6.4%	3.0	3.0
2020/1/22	22	393	571	17	28	3.0%	4.9%	8.0	0.0
2020/1/23	23	1072	830	25	34	3.0%	4.1%	8.0	6.0
2020/1/24	24	1965	1303	41	38	3.1%	2.9%	16.0	4.0
2020/1/25	25	2684	1975	56	49	2.8%	2.5%	15.0	11.0
2020/1/26	26	5794	2762	80	51	2.9%	1.8%	24.0	2.0
2020/1/27	27	6973	4535	106	60	2.4%	1.3%	26.0	9.0
2020/1/28	28	9239	5997	132	-	-	-	-	-
2020/1/29	29	12167	7711	170	-	-	-	-	-
2020/1/30	30	15238	9720	213	-	-	-	-	-
2020/1/31	31	17988	11721	259	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/1	32	19544	14411	304	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/2	33	21558	17238	361	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/3	34	23214	20471	425	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/4	35	23260	24363	491	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/5	36	24702	28060	564	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/6	37	26359	31212	637	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/7	38	27657	34612	723	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/8	39	28942	37251	812	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/9	40	23589	40171	908	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/10	41	21675	42638	1016	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/11	42	16067	44747	1114	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/12	43	13435	58761	1259	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/13	44	10109	63851	1380	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/14	45	8969	66492	1523	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/15	46	8228	68500	1665	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/16	47	7264	70548	1770	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/17	48	6242	72436	1868	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/18	49	5248	74185	2004	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/19	50	4922	75002	2118	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/20	51	5206	75891	2236	-	-	-	-	-
2020/2/21	52	5365	76288	2345	-	-	-	-	-

Current Progress

Death Rate - Infective Graph

We first drew a curve of death rate against infective, and we find a strong linear relativity between these two variables. The graph is shown below. Then we drew a curve of the cured against time, and we found a strong linear relativity between them, which means the cured is steadily increasing with time.

Cured Crowds - Time Graph

Cure Rate - Infective Graph

Basic Statistics

This graph contains the basic statistics of the 2019-nCoV plague originated from Wuhan, Hubei Prov., China. Deathrate is illustrated as red line according to the right axis, and the infective(comfimred and uncomfirmed), death are illustrated in lines with data dots.